GRIP: 08Feb2026 Hong Kong – From “Uninvestable” to Quietly Back on the Map

Hong Kong’s property market has spent the last few years as a global “too hard” story, squeezed by politics, Covid scars and rising rates. Early 2026 looks different. A Kowloon East residential site on Choi Ha Road just drew nine bids from heavyweight developers, with pricing guidance in the mid‑billion Hong Kong dollar range and a projected yield of several hundred units – a clear sign that local balance sheets are willing to lean back into land at today’s valuations. At the same time, new survey data shows Hong Kong has climbed back into the top tier of Asia‑Pacific investment destinations after sitting outside the top rankings a year ago. Behind the headlines, two demand engines are doing the heavy lifting: mainland money and luxury resilience. Recent brokerage reports flag that mainland Chinese buyers now dominate “big‑ticket” commercial deals and a large share of ultra‑prime residential transactions on The Peak and in the Southern District. Luxury volumes in late 2025 were the strongest in several years, with momentum carrying into early 2026 and forecasts pointing to mid‑single‑digit price growth this year as cash‑rich buyers and limited luxury supply set the tone. On the commercial side, 2025 marked a turning point: total investment value rose meaningfully year‑on‑year and major advisers now expect deal volumes to climb again in 2026 as investors move before repricing windows narrow. Some bank research goes further, arguing that residential prices, already off their lows after a multi‑year drawdown from 2018 peaks, could stage a double‑digit percentage rebound in 2026 as sentiment, employment and the equity market all improve. For GRIP readers, the opportunity set is selective rather than indiscriminate. The Kowloon East tender tells you developers still believe in well‑located, mass‑market housing sites with strong transport links and end‑user demand, but they remain disciplined on land value and absorption risk. In capital‑markets terms, Hong Kong is re‑entering the conversation as a barbell trade: core and core‑plus office in stabilising Central and fringe CBD locations, ultra‑prime luxury with genuine scarcity, and carefully underwritten value‑add plays in sectors like hotels, serviced apartments and purpose‑built student accommodation where supply remains behind demand. The risks are obvious—geopolitics, policy surprises, global growth—but the 2026 story is no longer simply “avoid Hong Kong.”

Instead, it is a market where pricing has already done a lot of the work and where selective exposure, particularly alongside mainland capital and local developers who are now bidding again, can quietly re‑enter a global portfolio that has been underweight the city since 2019.