GRIP: 10Feb2026 US Housing – A Holding Pattern with Quiet ShiftsUS housing has slipped into a strange kind of calm.
Existing‑home sales ended 2025 on a surprisingly strong note, jumping over 5% in December to around 4.35 million annualised
Mortgage rates are hovering near the low‑6s, not cheap, not terrifying, just high enough to make people think twice rather than rush into or out of the market. Recent data has 30‑year fixed rates sitting a touch above 6%, barely moved over the last couple of weeks, which keeps buyers watching the next jobs report as much as the next listing. Existing‑home sales ended 2025 on a surprisingly strong note, jumping over 5% in December to around 4.35 million annualised – the best monthly pace in almost three years – but that momentum now meets winter weather, election noise, and rate fatigue.
Underneath the calm averages, the market is quietly reshaping. Inventory is inching higher, affordability is a little better than a year ago, and more metros are sliding into genuine “buyer‑ish” territory: places in the Sun Belt and West where listings are piling up, days on market are stretching, and sellers are finally negotiating instead of dictating. National price growth has slowed to a rounding error – some sources show barely above zero year‑on‑year – and a few once‑hot cities are flirting with flat or slightly lower prices.
At the same time, nearly four in ten US homeowners now own their homes outright, without a mortgage, which is great for household balance sheets but deepens the lock‑in: if you’re sitting on no debt or a 3% loan, it takes a big reason to sell into a 6% world.
For GRIP readers, early 2026 feels less like a turning point and more like a reset screen. This is a market where nothing is crashing, but the old playbook of “everything goes up if you wait” clearly no longer holds. The opportunity is local: pockets where rising inventory and tired sellers meet solid job bases, or where accessory dwelling units and small multifamily still pencil as liveable, modest‑leverage deals. The big picture is pretty human: millions of owners quietly enjoying being mortgage‑free, millions of would‑be buyers waiting for rates or prices (or both) to budge, and a spring season that could look surprisingly normal if the economy co‑operates. In 2026, US housing isn’t shouting; it’s humming in the background, and that’s often when disciplined capital gets its best entries.
